Understanding the Surge of December Tornado Outbreaks
Tornadoes, typically associated with the spring and early summer months, have shown a disconcerting trend by making a more frequent and deadly appearance in December. The United States recently experienced its third consecutive December marked by a devastating outbreak of tornadoes. The repercussions of these occurrences have been catastrophic, leaving a trail of destruction, claiming lives, causing injuries, and widespread power outages. Now more than ever, communities and businesses need to understand the new norms of our changing atmosphere and arm themselves with the best tools to see severe weather approaching.
December 2023 Tornado Outbreaks
A tornado is a rotating, funnel-shaped cloud that extends from a thunderstorm to the ground with violent winds that can reach in excess of 300 miles per hour. While tornadoes can occur at any time during the year in the United States, the clustering of deadly tornado outbreaks in the traditionally cooler months is increasingly becoming a cause for concern among meteorologists and researchers.
On December 9th, 2023, a harrowing tornado outbreak occurred that primarily struck Tennessee, inflicting severe damage on Nashville and Clarksville. The key contributing factors to these tornadoes included substantial wind shear coupled with temperatures that were as high as 20 degrees F above average. Combined, these conditions created the ideal environment for tornado formation. Reports from the National Weather Service confirmed an EF3 tornado with winds reaching 150 mph, leaving a 43-mile path of destruction into Kentucky.
The impact was grave, resulting in the loss of two adults and one child, while more than 60 others suffered injuries. The ferocity and longevity of the tornado underscored its severity as the most potent confirmed tornado of the outbreak, with ongoing surveys to assess the total number of tornadoes spawned during the storm. For example, the National Weather Service also confirmed an EF2 tornado occurred northeast of Nashville.
Increasing Trend of December Tornadoes
This recent occurrence echoes similar patterns observed in the previous two Decembers. In 2021, a staggering 66 tornadoes were recorded during an outbreak that led to significant devastation, notably an EF4 tornado in Mayfield, Kentucky that caused widespread destruction across 165 miles. The following year, in December 2022, Louisiana experienced over 50 confirmed tornadoes, reinforcing the emerging trend of December tornado outbreaks.
While December tornadoes are not unprecedented, recent research points to a concerning association between these events and climate change. Studies conducted in 2018 and 2021 revealed a discernible increase in winter tornadoes across the southern United States. The warmer atmosphere has created more conducive environments for tornado formation during typically cooler months.
Although scientists cannot attribute a single tornado outbreak solely to our changing atmosphere, the underlying meteorological conditions, such as elevated temperatures, strongly suggest a correlation between the warming climate and the severity of thunderstorms leading to tornado outbreaks.
Advanced Weather Technology is Key
The implications are profound. As winter registers as the fastest-warming season across the United States, the possibility of more frequent tornado occurrences during December, January, and February looms as a distinct possibility. Efforts to comprehend and mitigate the escalating risks associated with these changing weather patterns are imperative. Better weather technology, when integrated and utilized effectively, can significantly enhance preparedness and response strategies for communities and businesses facing increased severe weather events, including more frequent tornado outbreaks during the winter months.
Enhanced Radar Coverage
Advanced radar systems with higher resolution can provide more detailed and accurate information about severe weather phenomena, including tornadoes. Expanded radar coverage across regions can ensure that meteorologists can detect and track storms more comprehensively. Better radar technology also allows for earlier detection of severe weather threats, giving communities and businesses more lead time to prepare and take necessary safety measures.
Climavision fills the observation gaps in existing radar coverage with our advanced high-resolution weather radar systems. The Climavision network is a first of its kind, supplemental radar network that provides access to real-time streaming radar data to deliver more complete coverage at the critical lower levels of the atmosphere.
Improved Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Models
Enhanced NWP models, driven by improved computational capabilities and more sophisticated algorithms and fueled by more observational datasets, can provide more accurate and timely forecasts for severe weather events. This includes predicting the likelihood and intensity of tornado outbreaks during winter months. Additionally, better NWP models can extend the lead time for warnings and advisories, allowing communities and businesses to initiate preparedness plans well in advance.
At Climavision, we push the boundaries of weather forecasting by crafting our own advanced Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Models, meticulously calibrated to account for the evolving landscape of extreme weather patterns in our changing atmosphere. Our Horizon AI weather forecasting product suite encompassing Horizon AI Global, HIRES, Point and Subseasonal to Seasonal models. From high resolution short-term forecasts to probabilistic longer term global outlooks, Climavision can arm your organization with the most accurate weather information you need to protect assets and save lives. We source unique, high resolution observational datasets that are assimilated into our models to produce better forecasts.
Integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI)
AI can process vast amounts of weather data from various sources, including radar, satellites, and weather stations. It can identify patterns and subtle changes in weather conditions, improving the accuracy of severe weather predictions. In the future, AI-powered systems could also be used to automate the process of issuing warnings and alerts based on specific criteria, reducing the chance of error and ensuring faster dissemination of critical information to communities and businesses in the path of severe weather events.
Climavision’s AI and computational capabilities enable us to assimilate vast amounts of data and tailor our Horizon AI NWP model forecasts to precisely match your unique use cases.
Get Proven Weather Technology Advancements for Your Community or Business
As we move forward, collaboration among scientists, policymakers, community leaders, and business organizations will be instrumental in not only understanding but also proactively adapting to these changing weather patterns and minimizing their potentially catastrophic impacts. The integration of better weather technology, including improved radar coverage, enhanced NWPs, and AI-driven systems, empowers decision makers to proactively prepare and respond to increased severe weather threats, such as more frequent tornado outbreaks during winter months. These technological advancements not only enable better prediction and early warning but also support informed decision-making and resilience-building measures, ultimately saving lives and minimizing the impact of severe weather events on communities and businesses. If you’d like to learn more about how Climavision’s advancements in weather technology can help your organization, contact us.
