Weather’s Role in the Renewable Energy Transition
In August NYISO released its assessment of energy demands and transition needs, with an outlook over the next 20 years. Zach Smith, Senior VP of System and Resource Planning at NYISO told Daily Energy Insider, “Recent transmission investments are making great strides towards the full integration of renewable power across New York State.” With an expected increase in energy demand of 50-90% across NYISO over the next 20 years, producers and traders will need better resources than ever to anticipate fluctuations in supply and demand.
However, one factor consistently influences the performance and reliability of renewable energy: weather. Whether it’s the amount of sunlight hitting solar panels, the speed of wind driving turbines, or the rainfall feeding hydroelectric dams, renewable energy is inherently weather-dependent. In this post, we’ll dive into the intricate relationship between weather and renewable energy production, explore the challenges that arise due to weather variability, and discuss how accurate weather forecasting can mitigate these challenges to ensure a more stable and sustainable energy future.
In Summary:
- Weather’s Influence: Weather heavily impacts the performance and reliability of renewable energy sources like solar, wind, and hydropower.
- Challenges Due to Variability: Renewable energy production faces challenges from unpredictable weather conditions, including drops in solar and wind energy during unfavorable weather and disruptions from extreme events like hurricanes and heatwaves.
- Importance of Forecasting: Accurate weather forecasting is essential for optimizing renewable energy operations, from adjusting solar panel angles to planning maintenance for wind and hydropower facilities.
- Grid Stability: Weather forecasts help balance energy supply and demand, reducing transmission congestion, ensuring grid stability, and reducing price risk even during extreme weather conditions.
- Energy Traders’ Advantage: Advanced weather data allows traders to predict supply-demand fluctuations, optimize profitability, and manage risks.
- Climavision’s Horizon AI Solutions: Horizon AI Global, Horizon AI Point, and Horizon AI S2S are powerful forecasting tools that assist energy providers and traders by offering accurate, localized, and long-term weather predictions.
Challenges Faced by Renewable Energy Due to Weather Variability
One of the central challenges renewable energy providers face is the natural variability of weather. Unlike traditional fossil fuels, where energy production is relatively constant, renewable energy relies on unpredictable and ever-changing weather conditions. For instance, a solar power plant can experience a 60% drop in energy generation during cloudy or rainy days, while wind farms might produce little to no energy on calm days. Such variability creates significant challenges for energy providers trying to balance supply with demand on the grid.
Moreover, extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and intense. Hurricanes, heatwaves, and cold snaps can cause widespread disruptions in renewable energy grids. During a hurricane, both solar and wind energy systems may be taken offline for safety reasons, cutting off renewable power during periods of high demand. Similarly, heatwaves can reduce the efficiency of solar panels, and freezing temperatures can damage wind turbines, leading to outages and costly repairs.
This level of unpredictability requires energy providers and traders to rely on increasingly sophisticated weather forecasting tools. By anticipating weather changes and extreme events, energy providers can manage energy flows, plan maintenance, and allocate resources to avoid transmission congestion. Likewise, energy traders can gain a competitive advantage and manage price risk by predicting energy production and demand fluctuations.
The Importance of Accurate Weather Forecasting
The role of accurate weather forecasting in renewable energy production cannot be overstated. Forecasting provides energy companies with the information they need to optimize their operations, ensuring that they produce as much energy as possible under favorable conditions while preparing for periods of low production. Accurate weather forecasts help renewable energy providers plan for operational shifts, maintenance schedules, and energy storage needs, ensuring that energy production remains consistent.
In solar energy, precision forecasting allows operators to adjust panel angles in anticipation of changing sunlight conditions. Similarly, wind energy providers can use wind forecasts to reposition turbines or adjust their speeds, increasing efficiency. Hydropower plants can plan water release schedules based on expected rainfall, avoiding both drought-induced shortages and flood-related disruptions.
For grid operators, accurate weather forecasting helps balance supply and demand more effectively. With long-term forecasts, energy companies can predict periods of low production and plan to store surplus energy during peak production times. This reduces transmission congestion and helps maintain grid stability, even during extreme weather conditions.
Additionally, accurate weather forecasting gives energy traders a significant advantage. By leveraging advanced weather data, traders can anticipate fluctuations in energy supply and demand, making informed decisions that optimize profitability and mitigating price risk. This foresight enables them to react more quickly to market changes, leading to better outcomes for both energy providers and consumers.
Climavision’s Role in Supporting the Renewable Energy Transition
As the renewable energy industry continues to expand, the need for more precise and localized weather forecasting becomes increasingly crucial. Climavision is at the forefront of providing advanced weather intelligence solutions that support energy providers in optimizing their operations and energy traders in elevating their trading strategies. Our powerhouse Horizon AI suite of forecasting solutions gives ISOs a strategic advantage in preparing for supply & demand ebbs and flows, protecting financial assets and maximizing potential gain.
Horizon AI Global
Horizon AI Global leverages cutting-edge artificial intelligence to process billions of observations, seamlessly integrating them into our state-of-the-art Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) system. This powerful tool delivers highly accurate, gridded forecasts with 8km global precision, designed specifically to identify and predict high-impact, large-scale extreme weather events, especially within the critical 5-to-15-day range. Horizon AI provides comprehensive data, from surface conditions to upper atmospheric patterns, tracking storm trajectories and intensities with remarkable detail. The forecasts can also be visualized spatially for clearer, actionable insights.
These capabilities enable energy producers to improve grid planning and resource allocation and optimize renewable energy sources. With Horizon AI Global, energy traders can refine short-term positions, identify potential imbalances, and optimize trading strategies.
Horizon AI Point
Horizon AI Point is the leading site-specific weather forecasting system, driven by proprietary data inputs and advanced AI bias correction. Designed for optimized, highly accurate point specific forecasts, it delivers precise outlooks extending up to 15 days. By blending over 100 NWP models, analyzing data from local and nearby sensors, and applying machine learning to correct for historical biases, Horizon AI Point ensures unparalleled accuracy. Ideal for time series plotting and seamless data integration, it is a powerful tool for real-time, location-specific weather insights.
The increased accuracy of Horizon AI Point translates to optimized demand forecasting, asset protection, and operational efficiency for energy producers. Energy traders can utilize the model by identifying site-specific vulnerabilities, optimized renewable power sales, and gain hyperlocal insights.
Horizon AI S2S
Horizon AI S2S utilizes a groundbreaking AI-driven approach, meticulously trained on vast historical data sets to deliver unmatched forecast accuracy. This model provides highly detailed probabilistic predictions extending from 15 days to 2 years ahead, featuring global 25km gridded outputs and precise point-based downscaling. Updated daily, Horizon AI S2S offers comprehensive insights that can be visualized both spatially and through time series, ensuring a clear and dynamic view of long-range weather patterns.
For energy producers Horizon AI S2S forecasting can improve fuel planning, maintenance scheduling, and hydropower management. Energy traders can optimize portfolio management, manage physical delivery risks, and increase Geographical arbitrage
Capitalizing the Renewable Energy Opportunity
Weather and renewable energy are intricately connected, with weather patterns having a profound impact on the performance and reliability of solar, wind, and hydropower systems. As the world moves toward a more sustainable energy future, the importance of accurate weather forecasting will only grow. With precise weather intelligence from Climavision, renewable energy providers and traders can navigate the challenges of weather variability and profit from the renewable energy transition.
If you’re looking to harness the power of accurate weather forecasting to enhance your renewable energy strategy, contact Climavision today. Let us help you stay ahead of the weather and maximize your renewable energy potential.
