Seasonal Outlook: 2026 Hurricane Season
Hurricane season began on June 1st, and, despite warm sea surface temperatures, Climavision and many other forecasting agencies predict a below-average hurricane season in terms of total storms and major hurricanes. In this blog, we will analyze what’s driving this year’s hurricane forecast, and how coastal and inland areas should prepare for the hurricane season ahead.
How do hurricanes form, and what impacts their development?
Hurricanes form through a combination of environmental factors including particulate matter in the atmosphere, an organized shift in wind patterns or air pressure, warm sea surface temperatures, and favorable atmospheric steering currents. Each of these factors must be considered when examining the favorability of the environment for hurricane development.
Atmospheric disturbances in the Atlantic Ocean typically develop because of tropical waves. Tropical waves are clusters of rain showers or thunderstorms originating in the tropics or subtropics. These systems typically accompany a broad area of low pressure and may develop in the open Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, or even over land. Some of the most powerful tropical waves are African Easterly Waves (AEWs), which develop over Sub-Saharan Africa and track westward into the Atlantic Ocean. Strong convection and gentle atmospheric steering currents help tropical waves increase in strength and propagate more convection. As the size and strength of these waves increase, the Coriolis Effect begins to spin the storms around a central area of low pressure creating the swirling storm appearance associated with hurricanes.
If tropical waves remain over warm water surrounded by moist air, two key fuel sources for storms, they may develop into tropical storms or even hurricanes. Existing strong systems tend to increase in strength unless external factors inhibit their development. Dry air, wind shear (changing wind speed or direction with height), high pressure, cold sea surface temperatures, and convective suppression can all weaken a hurricane or prevent its development.
Satellite photo of a hurricane courtesy of NOAA.
What drives the forecast?
Thinking about hurricane formation in the present context, Atlantic sea surface temperatures are currently above normal, particularly in the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Subtropical Atlantic. While these temperatures would typically support storm development, the sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR), which spans from the west coast of Africa to the Caribbean Islands, are not as warm. The organized convection needed for cyclone development can be suppressed when the subtropics are warmer than the MDR.
Additionally, the much-anticipated El Niño has arrived. El Niño events cause warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Eastern Pacific which in turn strengthen upper-level westerly winds in the Atlantic. The increased upper-level wind enhances wind shear, which inhibits hurricane development. El Niño events also lead to atmospheric stability over many areas in the Atlantic Ocean, prohibiting the convection needed for tropical waves.
Sea surface temperature anomaly map valid July 9, 2026. Note the cooler-than-average temperatures in the Main Development Region. Map courtesy of Alex Boreham and cyclonicwx.com.
Climavision’s 2026 Hurricane Forecast:
When looking at a hurricane forecast, it’s important to understand common terms. Here are some frequently referred to parameters when forecasting hurricanes:
- Named storms have sustained wind speeds of 39 miles per hour or more, which is the threshold for a tropical storm
- A hurricane occurs when a tropical storm has sustained wind speeds of 74 miles per hour or more.
- Major hurricanes occur when a hurricane reaches category 3 level or high, indicated by sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or more.
- Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is a metric used to measure the activity of a hurricane season and is based on the number of cyclones in a season, how long each cyclone lasted, and how intense each cyclone became. The average ACE for the Atlantic basin is 122.5.
The combination of cooler water in the MDR, increased wind shear, and added atmospheric stability from El Niño decrease the likelihood of tropical storms and hurricanes. We forecast a below-average hurricane season with 9-13 named storms, 3-5 hurricanes, 2-3 major hurricanes, and an ACE of 60-100..
What does the ECMWF say?
Comparing forecasts often helps discern noise versus truth. When one forecast makes a claim, a second look at the outlook enhances confidence in what may or may not occur.
The ECMWF has been a public standard for hurricane outlooks for years. When comparing the ECMWF, we see similar results in our 2026 hurricane outlook, suggesting a below-average hurricane season is likely. The ECMWF forecasts 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 80% of the ACE of a typical hurricane season.
How should coastal areas prepare?
While overall hurricane development may decrease this year compared to average, warm sea surface temperatures in the Gulf, Caribbean, and Subtropical Atlantic mean storms could develop rapidly when shear and convection suppression from El Niño lulls. Both coastal and inland communities still need to prepare for potential storm impacts.
For individuals, the beginning of a hurricane season is a great time to check your supply of nonperishable food and water, so you are not left scrambling for supplies in an empty supermarket. It is also important to verify your evacuation plan and check for essentials like flashlights, fresh batteries, and first-aid kits.
For businesses, utilities, traders, public safety officials, and more, hurricane season introduces uncertainty. Operational efficiency, resiliency, and preparedness are top of mind in the lead-up to a new season Outlooks are just the start. Tools that allow for early insights, more lead time, hyperlocal precision, and greater confidence about the location and possible impacts of tropical systems make the difference between being surprised by a storm, or prepared. There is no question, preparation changes outcomes.
How can Climavision help?
Our suite of forecasting products including our Global and HI-RES models, along with our Point Forecast System offer hyperlocal, long lead accuracy to predict storm development and impacts. The success of these models is not theoretical – they prove their performance over and over, performing on par with and even outperforming in many instances, the gold standard ECMWF.
For instance, when hurricane Beryl threatened the east Texas coast in July 2024, public models struggled to pinpoint possible landfall in the leadup to the event. In fact, at times, the ECMWF model indicated a southern landfall in Mexico. Beginning 9 days out from the event, our global model tracked the storm consistently within just a few miles of where it actually made landfall near Matagorda, TX. In practice, this means the possibility of knowing tropical impacts with great confidence a whole 9 days in advance is actually possible and can be operationalized today. Nine days of lead time is a 9 day head start on planning and preparedness, which ultimately saves time, money, and likely people and property.
Planning Ahead
During lulls in active tropical storm development, it’s still just as important to stay attuned to the changing atmosphere – early signals can tell us when a storm might be brewing and while still critically important, public information and infrastructure alone is no longer enough. Integrating advanced forecasting, models, and observations into a full weather technology stack allows for tracking of prolonged heat events, elevated dew points, and the load swings that often accompany them, helping utility operators and energy traders anticipate demand peaks. Public safety officials use the same data to plan for heat emergencies, wildfire weather, and flooding threats.
While El Niño patterns typically suppress overall hurricane activity, they can intensify inland heat, drought, and convective risk across other regions. High-resolution, frequently updated forecast data is ever more meaningful when threats shift and become harder to predict with coarser public models.
During and After the Storm
Once landfall is imminent, advanced forecasting and hyperlocal observations are critical for informing storm evolution – how it will morph over land and where additional impacts should be expected. In past years, inland communities in the American South, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast have all been severely impacted and surprised by inland flooding, tornados, and strong winds that linger as tropical cells travel across land. Once a storm moves inland, our gap-filling weather radar observations complement modeling and forecasting for better situational awareness in areas that existing, publicly owned radar infrastructure often miss. These observations can mean knowing whether or not a community will receive 3 inches or rain or 21 inches of rain from a particular tropical band. This type of unexpected rainfall can cripple an entire community infrastructure and without the benefit of an observation, surprise almost always equals devastation.
Ready to stay ahead of the storm this hurricane season? Reach out to obtain the cases studies and learn how Climavision will benefit your operations.
